Power ratio before the presidential elections

Lately, SMER-SD has put an end to the case of refusal of the Attorney General’s nomination by the President of the Republic, electing its own candidate for the key post in justice. Henceforth, the conquest of state power by SMERSD seems to be unfolding: their members already hold the positions as heads of institutions, Prime Minister, they have a one-party government, an overwhelming majority in the Parliament, even won the majority of regions and ... the President of the Republic. Does this state of affairs seem reversible? Not in the imminent future. That statement is also supported by the latest surveys, according to which SMER-SD would receive 47% of votes. Meanwhile, the process of "decomposition" of the Slovak right-wing is progressing by the day.

Power means Fico

Paradoxically, the leader of polls is not an official candidate. In the upcoming elections the main issue is whether the strongest of the statesmen, Prime Minister Robert Fico will declare his candidacy. In that case he would win the elections easily, as commentators on both sides agree that he remains the most popular and charismatic personality in politics.The question only arises in the following terms for Mr Fico: to be or not to be ... President? Many people doubt the candidacy of Mr Fico, whose current position as head of the Slovak executive branch is much stronger, since Slovakia is a parliamentary republic.

However, regarding the prospect of becoming President as a diminution of power could be a serious underestimation of the potential of the office. Surely, the title is traditionally associated with a merely representative position, and is usually given to well-respected people who are already in de facto political retirement. This was indeed the case for current President Gasparovic, serving two consecutive terms, who was considered a puppet in the hands of SMER.

By the way, there are many who wish to see Mr Fico withdrawing from the field of effective political action. His alleged exhaustion – after more than 20 years in highlevel politics – should justify his desire to accede to a position of lesser responsibility, less media exposure, from where he could play the role of "father of the nation" and of a political conciliator. The important thing in politics is to know when to retire. In that way, the name of Mr Fico would be engraved in history books and he would leave before exhausting his political capital.

Is it Fico or the regime that changes?

Alas, this cherished dream of the members of right-wing remains unlikely. It is important not to foster illusions and underestimate the potential of the presidential office in the hands of an ambitious man. A politician at the height of his power does not retire. On the contrary. If Mr Fico was elected President, the function itself would be radically transformed. By simply changing the constitutional tradition, Slovakia would be on its way to become more of a presidential system.

Given the political atmosphere of the neighboring countries – "Zemanocratie" in the Czech Republic or trends in Hungary – such a development would not surprise anyone. We should not forget that SMER-SD is missing only seven deputies to be able to amend the Constitution as a single party. Maybe its review is in stock after the next parliamentary elections...? Even if Slovakia did not transform into a presidential republic, the application of the "Putin-Medvedev" model by Mr Fico represents an equally unimaginable scenario for the right-wing.

Iveta Radicova, the "providential woman" of the right-wing?

Thus, the only anticipated moment is the announcement of the candidacy of Mr Fico. Especially as for now, yet again, the right-wing shows its inability to unite which in this situation can be fatal. Unless... unless it stops producing one shaky candidate after another and mobilizes its forces to support the "political martyr" Iveta Radicova , the former Prime Minister retired from politics. Who by the way also refuses categorically any prospect of her candidacy at the elections, just like Mr Fico. However, according to conventional wisdom, the prior denial of the candidacy is already the first step of the future campaign.

For now, Ms. Radicova is procrastinating. But her sudden return as “providential woman”, the politician who fought for transparency, and who was reprimanded for these ideals remains last hope of the right-wing. It may be that their defeat at the regional elections this fall – the right-wing was yet again too divided – could provide the impetus to come up with one common candidate, worthy of confronting Mr Fico in the final battle, only to stop him from dominating as a sovereign Slovak politics for years to come.

But Mr Fico has an additional strategic advantage – with the number of his party’s deputies in the Parliament, he can afford the luxury of waiting until the last moment before declaring himself a candidate. While hypothetically Radicova or others as candidates of citizens, must collect the signatures of 15,000 citizens, forcing them to start earlier. Thus, Mr Fico could take his decision at the last moment, when he would be sure to have no real competition and to avoid the unimaginable – his defeat in the presidential elections, which could hasten the end of his political career.