Have the tables turned in Poland?

The recent events on the Polish political scene have challenged the long-time predominant position of Platforma Obywatelska, Civic Platform (PO). Numerous difficult reforms and a financial affair involving the son of Prime Minister Donald Tusk have contributed to the decrease of popularity of the governing party. Recently published polls indicate the dramatic change in public opinion – as much as 40% of citizens would vote for the party ‘Law and Justice’, against only 35% who want to support Civic Platform. Contrary to the popularity polls, the government will not be replaced any time soon, as the majority of deputies gave it the green light in the vote of confidence which took place on October 12th.

The experience of economic growth

Reelected in 2011, the Civic Platform assured stability for Polish citizens. Thus what is expected in the upcoming elections in 2015 is that the average Pole is going to vote for the governing party, instead of voting for revolutionary ideas presented by Law and Justice. The growth experienced by Poland, even during the crisis, created the positive image of Civic Platform among the electorate. Moreover, this party benefited strongly from the success of the European Championship in Football Euro 2012 organized in Poland and in Ukraine, and from Polish presidency in the Council of European Union. Less popular, but the still necessary pension reform extending the time of work to 67 years was widely appreciated by independent experts. Conformingly to the principles of social psychology, a commonly accepted authority will allow to progressively persuade people about the utility of reforms. Therefore, all this legislative and organizational success of the Polish government will help it maintain its citizens’ support.

Reforms are coming

In the exposé preceding the vote of confidence, Donald Tusk presented the program of the new reforms which are supposed to rebuild the confidence. Indeed, the multidimensional plan of economic and demographic development had a positive repercussion in media. Despite of technical language, projected visions are able to seduce many citizens. On the one hand, the Prime Minister promised to continue the deregulation of professions. Furthermore, investments in new energy projects and in infrastructure are planned. On the other hand, Donald Tusk wants to launch a campaign of reforms searching for an accelerator to demographic growth. The prolongation of the paid family leave concluded from this reform would be especially attractive for young families.

Guess who is going to be the next prime minister!

During the manifestation entitled “Poland, wake up!” the leader of the main opposition party, Jarosław Kaczyński, announced the plan of the vote of constructive no-confidence. This procedure includes the proposition of a new prime minister who would replace the leaving one. Kaczyński postponed the moment of publication of the name of his candidate in order to let the media speculating about the potential successor of Donald Tusk. Finally, he revealed it would be an independent expert; namely professor Piotr Gliński, member of the Polish Academy of Sciences. However, other parties, largely left-wings, refused the proposition of Law and Justice. Therefore, the party of Jarosław Kaczyński has no chance to enter the government, because it does not have enough partners to create the coalition necessary to acquire the majority of votes in the parliament elections.

Should they stay (at the opposition) or should they go (to the government)?

Recent surveys show clear predominance of Law and Justice. But this support expresses more the deception and opposition to the actual style of governing, than the real popularity of the opposition party. Other surveys indicate that the majority of Poles are reluctant to the concept of the IVth Republic promoted by the party of Jarosław Kaczyński. The latter still occupies the first place in the ranking of the most distrusted politician. Therefore, the actual mobilization of this party is not sufficient to make a revolution on the Polish political scene. Only a coalition with the left-wing party would allow overturning Tusk’s government. In this case, however, the enemies of their enemy are not their friends.